IENE has just published a new Working Paper, No 24, on the Prospects for the Electric Vehicle Market and Business opportunities with special reference to SE Europe and Greece. The paper summarizes the findings of a corresponding major study by IENE on the region’s Electric Vehicle Market.IENE has just published a new Working Paper, No 24, on the Prospects for the Electric Vehicle Market and Business opportunities with special reference to SE Europe and Greece. The paper summarizes the findings of a corresponding major study by IENE on the region’s Electric Vehicle Market.
The electrification of the transport sector could play a key role in the decarbonization of the global energy system, as long as the grid is powered by green energy and hence the use of Electric Vehicles (ENs) is considered vital in this respect.
The EVs due to their rapid technological evolution are expected to reach parity with the petrol fueled ones during 2018 and eventually achieve a cheaper cost of ownership in 2022 even if the conventional ICE vehicles improve their fuel efficiency by 3.5% per year23. It is now obvious that the vehicle market is shifting towards electricity.
In 2016 the global sales of plug in electric vehicles reached 753,000, 60% of which were battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). China was for the 2nd consecutive year the largest EV market in the world with more than 40% of the global sales, while Europe was the 2nd largest market with 215,000 EVs sold, which corresponds to 28,5% of the global market. United States were left in the 3rd place with 160,000 EVs sold.
Globally the EV sales showed growth of 40% in 2016. However, the growth declined from 70% in 2015 and it is the first time that it is below 50% since 2010.
The rapidly decreasing cost of batteries, which is the most cost intensive EV component, would be the main driver for dropping the price of EVs in the near future. Therefore, the cost of EV batteries fell by 73% between 2010 and 2016 (BNEF, 2017).
During 2017 Manufacturers have introduced in the market various battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs) in most vehicle classes. Over 50 different BEV models are available worldwide, while 36 new models are expected to enter the market during 2018. Moreover, a large variety of PHEVs are available in the market providing a longer driving range alternative.
Various economic studies have attempted to predict the future of electric vehicles. BNEF in one of its studies (2016) predicts that the rapid development and cost reduction in battery technology during the 2020s will make EVs a more economic option than gasoline or diesel cars in most countries. Moreover, the study forecasts 60 million new EV sales by 2040 corresponding to 54% of new light duty vehicle sales.
Such a development would displace the use of 19 million barrels of crude oil per day on the transport sector, substituting it with 10.82 TWh of electricity per day which would account to a consumption of 3950 TWh annually, equivalent to 16% of the electricity consumption of 2016. The study is based on the crude oil price prediction, assuming a recovery to $50 and trending up to $70 per barrel or higher by 2040.
The market for EVs in Greece is in its infancy accounting for only 334 passenger PEVs in circulation in 201746, while the local fleet includes also 113 passenger tricycles, 124 electric motorbikes and 14 electric trucks (2016).
However, 2017 has been a significant year for electric mobility in Greece as the EV market share jumped up from 0.06% to 0.19 % with the market almost tripling in volume, achieving a market growth of +243%. The most significant trend is the turn of the consumers towards PHEVs which accounted for 80.1% of the total sales (+821%).
IENE’s total Working Paper can be accessed through:
file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/Working%20paper%20No%2024%20(4).pdf
