Over the past 20 years, European gas demand has gone through three clear phases: stability, shock, and structural decline. In the mid-2000s, gas demand was around 400 bcm, rising slightly to about 410 bcm by 2010 and remaining broadly stable between 395-415 bcm through 2019, driven by power generation, industry, and residential heating. European gas demand dipped only marginally during the coronavirus pandemic, staying near 410 bcm in 2020-2021. A major break came in 2022, when gas consumption fell sharply to about 356 bcm following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, high prices, supply cuts, and EU demand-reduction measures. The decline deepened in 2023, with gas demand dropping to roughly 330 bcm, around 25%-30% below pre-crisis levels, as efficiency gains, fuel switching, renewables, and industrial slowdown took hold. In 2024, European gas demand recovered modestly to 332 bcm, mainly due to weather and power-sector needs, but it remains far below historical norms.
According to the European Commission, EU gas demand is expected to decline from 332 bcm in 2024 to around 302 bcm by 2030, reflecting roughly a 9% reduction driven by energy transition policies and increased electrification. Some EU modelling under REPowerEU scenarios suggests deeper reductions, with demand potentially falling toward around 190-233 bcm by 2030 if up to 100 bcm of gas is replaced through efficiency and renewables’ deployment. A prospect which is not shared by industry.
Now, according to the latest IENE Monthly Analysis, which is available here, European gas supply is heading toward a more flexible and less import-dependent system as decarbonisation policies and energy security concerns reshape the market. Demand is expected to decline over the long term due to electrification, energy efficiency measures, and the expansion of renewable energy, particularly in power generation and heating. At the same time, Europe has rapidly reconfigured its gas supply sources, replacing pipeline dependence on Russia with a more diversified mix of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and alternative pipeline suppliers, while strengthening storage and short-term balancing mechanisms.
Despite this contraction, natural gas will continue to play a transitional role in Europe’s energy system, providing flexibility to back up intermittent renewables and support industrial processes where alternatives remain limited. Gas supply strategies are increasingly focused on adaptability, with LNG infrastructure, spot market access, and contractual flexibility becoming more important than long-term volume commitments. Over time, parts of the gas system are expected to evolve toward low-carbon gases such as biomethane and hydrogen, gradually redefining the role of gas within Europe’s broader energy transition.
