Nuclear energy is already used for power generation by five countries in the region. Between them, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia/Slovenia, have some 6.0 GW of nuclear installed capacity, which is going to double by 2030 on the strength of current programmes. Nuclear plants provide predictable and useful electricity base load, which enables the power transmission operators to plan efficiently power generation requirements.
In addition, the zero emissions from operating NPPs come as a useful caveat to contribute to the region’s efforts to curtail GHG emissions. Hence, the study of the role of nuclear power generation on a regional basis is of great interest to IENE.
Following the tragic accident at Fukushima’s nuclear power plant (NPP) in March 2011 and operational security reviews, which have since been conducted by the countries which host NPPs (in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia/Slovenia), the use of nuclear power in the region is unlikely to diminish over the next decade, at least in quantitative terms. Neither Bulgaria nor Romania or Hungary are likely to shut down the Cernavoda, the Kozloduy 5-6 power and the Paks 1, 2, 3, 4 plants respectively, due to renewed skepticism caused by the Fukushima accident.
The same applies for Croatia and Slovenia, which between them share the Krsko nuclear power plant. Both governments are very well aware of the fact that a decrease in the participation of nuclear power in their electricity generated portfolio cannot be easily replaced by renewables or be compensated by an increase of coal generated electricity due to the equally burdensome environmental costs. If they are to reduce the participation of nuclear power in their total electricity mix, both states have as an alternative the increase of imported gas, magnifying their already high dependence on gas.
Theoretically, in qualitative terms, the participation of nuclear generation in the regional electricity mix is set to diminish significantly as the incremental demand of Bulgaria and Romania will be covered by increasing volumes of natural gas and, to a lesser extent, by renewables. However, this might change as both Romania and Turkey are definitely going ahead with plans to increase their nuclear installed capacity, which will result in two major nuclear power generation complexes with 6 GW of new installed capacity in operation by 2030.
In the cases of Bulgaria (Units 5 and 6 as well as the planned new Unit 7 of Kozloduy NPP) and Turkey (the site of Akkuyu), Russia might have a role to play. However, it should be recalled that strategic investments have two substantial characteristics in the energy sector. They need many years to be implemented but they last for decades. And this should not be jeopardized by short-term political considerations when regional, economic and safety considerations are in place.
In this sense, Fukushima anti-nuclear power generation rationale does not appear to
hold in the case of SE Europe. For countries already involved in nuclear power development (Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia/Slovenia, Turkey), the road ahead is most unlikely to be obstructed by revised risk assessments.
Developing further nuclear power generation in the region will be a real challenge as not all countries are favouring this option. In this respect, detailed studies need to be undertaken to identify the real pitfalls that such prospects may have and also assess the apparent compatibility between RES and nuclear power in the context of decarbonization policies. IENE places particular emphasis on the role and prospects of nuclear energy in combating GHG emissions and its tandem operation with RES.
This IENE programme focuses on latest developments regarding nuclear energy in SE Europe and the prospects for new nuclear power capacity and NPPs. The role of nuclear power generation in balancing the region’s electricity and energy mix is of particular interest. IENE’s programme also covers legal, regulatory and policy issues in terms of higher nuclear use, especially since SE Europe is now moving towards decarbonization and nuclear energy can play an important role as a carbon-free fuel.