Libya's fragile oil sector recovery suffered
further disruption at the weekend when state-owned NOC declared force
majeure on exports from the major eastern ports of Es Sider and Ras
Lanuf because of heavy fighting between armed groups in the area.
The
ports -- with a combined export capacity of 560,000 b/d -- only resumed
operations in August having been closed for more than a year after
anti-government protesters occupied the terminals.
Libya
succeeded in boosting production to 1 million b/d by the end of October,
and NOC was hopeful of returning output to pre-crisis levels of around
1.5 million b/d by end-2014.
But first the major 340,000 b/d
capacity Sharara field was closed in November because of security
issues, and now exports are threatened from the country's largest and
third-biggest ports.
"NOC has declared a state of force majeure at the ports of Es Sider and
Ras Lanuf because of armed clashes in the area," it said in a statement
posted to its website.
"A crisis team has been employed to ensure
operations can be suspended and restarted safely. NOC and its
subsidiaries are committed to working to maintain the equipment and the
capacity of the country's oil," it said.
It added it was taking steps to keep operating staff, wells, pumps, piping and equipment in the area safe.
INDUSTRY REACTION
The
oil price -- which has been in freefall in since mid-June -- was
boosted Monday by the Libyan force majeure, and a likely fall in Libyan
exports could breathe life back into the sweet crude market in the
Mediterranean, traders said.
"The force majeure in Libya over the
weekend may well revitalize the sweet crude market. Differentials have
been under pressure, but they should recover a little bit," one trader
said.
"I would imagine that there should be more interest in
Mediterranean sweet grades from people who had been looking to take
Libyan. The Es Sider and Ras Lanuf terminals are important, accounting
for around half of Libyan exports," the trader said.
Shipping
sources said that the force majeure at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf could
force ships that have already been fully fixed to be diverted to other
Libyan loading areas.
"For the moment I have not heard of ships
already fixed being canceled, but no doubt charterers will look to
redirect ships to workable load ports. Any ships that are currently on
subjects from Es Sider and Ras Lanuf will probably fail," said a
Mediterranean-based shipowner.
A trader added: "I'm not sure that
charterers will want to wait in front of a Libyan port that is under
force majeure. I know people who waited for 15 days at Libyan ports
before they were able to load cargoes, and that was when there wasn't
even a force majeure," the trader said.
Aframax freight rates on
the cross-Mediterranean route, basis 80,000 mt, rose Worldscale 27.5
last week, largely due to a steady supply of cargoes from Libya.
Shipping sources said the rising rates could be halted this week as a result of the reduction in Libyan supply.
"The force majeure at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf will inevitably take some steam out of the market," said a shipbroker.
AIR STRIKES
The
Libyan air force launched air strikes Saturday near Es Sider to stop
the advance of the Islamist fighters closing in on the port and the
surrounding area.
The air raids were followed by clashes on the ground that tapered off in the evening only to resume again Sunday, AFP reported.
Libya
currently has two rival administrations claiming legitimacy and vying
for power over the oil sector, the life blood of the economy.
Production
had been running at some 700,000 b/d -- half the country's capacity --
before the force majeure at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf was declared.
Prime
Minister Abdullah al-Thani, who leads the Tobruk-based government, was
elected in June and has gained the recognition of the international
community.
The capital, Tripoli, is now under the control of an
Islamist-led coalition, under rival Prime Minister Omar al-Hassi, backed
by the powerful Libya Dawn militia.
To gain greater control of
Libya's income from crude oil exports, the Tobruk government announced
Sunday that it is planning major changes to the oil revenue payment
system.
Payments will no longer go through the central bank in
Tripoli. These accounts will be closed, Al-Thinni told the Al-Arabiya
news station.
Instead, NOC will have to rely on international banks.
(Platts)