The following are the highlights of IEA’s April 2015 Oil Μarket Report released today:
- Oil futures prices eased in March, pressured by sharply higher supplies from Middle East OPEC producers and a relentless build in US crude stocks as refiners in Europe and Asia prepared for maintenance. At the time of writing, ICE Brent was trading at roughly $58.25/bbl – some 50% below last June’s peak. NYMEX WTI was around $52.35/bbl.
-The forecast of global oil demand for 2015 has been raised by 90 kb/d to 93.6 mb/d, a gain of 1.1 mb/d on the year. The notable acceleration on 2014’s 0.7 mb/d growth follows cold temperatures in 1Q15 and a steadily improving global economic backdrop.
- Global supply rose by an estimated 1 mb/d month-on-month in March, to 95.2 mb/d, as OPEC production recorded its highest monthly increase in nearly four years. Annual gains of a whopping 3.5 mb/d were split between OPEC and non-OPEC production.
- OPEC crude oil output soared by 890 kb/d in March, to 31.02 mb/d, on sharply higher Saudi Arabian, Iraqi and Libyan supplies. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ was revised marginally higher for 2H15, to 30.35 mb/d, above the group’s official production ceiling, but left unchanged for 2015 versus last month’s Report, at 29.5 mb/d.
- OECD industry stocks slipped by 1.7 mb in February, despite a massive 36.4 mb build in crude oil stocks. Preliminary data show OECD inventories rising counter-seasonally in March, by 29.2 mb, as US crude holdings extended recent builds and refined products defied seasonal trends.
- Global refinery crude demand is expected to fall seasonally to 77.3 mb/d in 2Q15, from 78 mb/d in 1Q15. While Atlantic Basin refiners mostly completed turnarounds in 1Q15, Asian refinery maintenance is set to ramp up sharply in 2Q15, with up to 2.5 mb/d of distillation capacity offline at its peak in May.
