Global oil supply inched up by 35 kb/d in October to 94.2 mb/d. Compared with one year ago, total supply was 2.7 mb/d higher as higher OPEC production added to non‐OPEC supply growth of 1.8 mb/d. Non‐OPEC production growth is forecast to ease to 1.3 mb/d for 2015 from this year’s 1.8 mb/d high.
OPEC
output eased by 150 kb/d in October to 30.60 mb/d, remaining
well above the group’s official 30 mb/d supply target for a sixth month
running. The group’s oil ministers meet on 27 November against the
backdrop of a 30% price decline since they last gathered in June.
Global
oil demand estimates for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged since
last
month’s Report, at 92.4 mb/d and 93.6 mb/d,
respectively.Projected growth will increase from a five‐year annual low of 680 kb/d
in 2014 to an estimated 1.1 mb/d next year as the macroeconomic
backdrop is expected to improve.
OECD
industry oil stocks built counter‐seasonally by
12.6 mb in
September.Their deficit
versus average levels, after ballooning earlier
this year, fell to its narrowest since April 2013. Preliminary data show
that despite a 4.2 mb draw, stocks swung into a surplus to average
levels in October for the first time since March 2013.
Global
refinery crude demand hit a seasonal low in October amid
peak plant maintenance and seasonally weak product demand. The
4Q14 throughput estimate is largely unchanged since last month’s
Report, at 77.5 mb/d, as robust
Russian and Chinese throughputs
offset a steeper‐than‐expected drop in US runs in October.
(http://omrpublic.iea.org/)
