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Oil futures prices for Brent rose above $112/bbl on 12 June, the highest level this year, in the wake of a bold military campaign by Sunni insurgents in Iraq and continued supply outages in Libya. An apparent build in China’s crude strategic reserve in April and May, at an average 1.2 mb/d, is also strengthening markets.
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Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.3 mb/d in 2014, to 92.8 mb/d, a modest acceleration on 2013 as the macroeconomic backdrop improves. Global oil demand is set to increase sharply from a low of 91.4 mb/d in 1Q14 to a high of 94 mb/d in 4Q14.
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Global supplies rose 530 kb/d in May, to 92.6 mb/d, mostly on an increase in non-OPEC production of 440 kb/d. On a yearly basis, world output was up 1.0 mb/d for the month, as non-OPEC growth of 2.1 mb/d compensated for OPEC declines.
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OPEC supplies inched up by 85 kb/d to 29.99 mb/d in May, with increased Saudi output offsetting declines in Libya. The ‘call’ on OPEC crude and stock changes has been raised by 150 kb/d for 2H14 to an average 30.9 mb/d.
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OECD industry stocks built by 39.8 mb, twice the seasonal average, to stand at 2 624 mb by end-April. As a result, the deficit to average levels was reduced to 77 mb, its narrowest since October 2013. Preliminary data indicate a further strong 37.4 mb build in May.
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Global refinery crude demand fell to a seasonal low of 75.9 mb/d in April on maintenance and weak margins. OECD runs were stronger than expected, rising by 470 kb/d year-on-year, their first annual gain since June 2013. Global runs are set to increase seasonally through August, averaging 76.5 mb/d in 2Q14 and 77.8 mb/d in 3Q14.
(http://omrpublic.iea.org/, June 13, 2014)
