Global Oil Supply Rises in October: International Energy Agency

Global oil supply in October rose by 410,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 101.66 million bpd, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil market report on Tuesday.

However, daily crude oil production of the OPEC group fell to 29.8 million bpd in October, with a decrease of about 30,000 bpd compared to the previous month.

Production of OPEC natural gas liquids was recorded at 5.39 million bpd, bringing OPEC's total oil production to 35.19 million bpd last month.

Non-OPEC production saw a jump of around 430,000 bpd to 66.47 million bpd in October.

According to the report, from May through October, global oil output increased by 3.2 million bpd, with both Saudi Arabia and the US ramping up and surpassing pre-pandemic rates.

'But from October through December, supply is forecast to drop by 1 million bpd as OPEC+ implements its decision to cut official production targets by 2 million bpd and an EU ban on Russian crude oil comes into effect. The actual OPEC+ reduction is expected to be less than half the headline amount as most of the bloc is already pumping far below quotas,' the report said.

Despite the anticipated declines, the IEA forecasted that world production would outpace demand through the remainder of 2022.

Global demand forecast increases for 2022 and falls for 2023

The report said the global oil demand outlook continues to face a 'myriad of headwinds in the shape of rising recession odds, China's persistently weak economy, Europe's energy crisis, soaring product crack values and a strong US dollar.'

'Combined, these have weighed on deliveries for most of 2022 and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, pushing global oil demand into year-on-year contraction in 4Q22 for both OECD and non-OECD economies,' the report explained.

The IEA revised up its global oil demand growth estimates by 180,000 bpd for 2022, compared to last month's report, largely due to revisions in Chinese demand. Global oil demand is now projected to average 99.8 million bpd in 2022, with an increase of 2.1 million bpd year over year.

However, the agency revised down its growth forecast for next year by 40,000 bpd. Oil demand is now estimated to increase by 1.6 million barrels in 2023, to around 101.4 million bpd.

According to the IEA, demand will remain subdued in the first quarter of 2023 but will pick up significantly in the second quarter, surpassing 2019 levels.

(Anadolu Agency, November 15, 2022)

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