OPEC+ is set to consider extending its run of super-sized production increases at a meeting next month, as group leader Saudi Arabia leads a push to recoup market share.
Eight key OPEC+ nations have agreed on bumper 411,000 barrel-a-day increases in each of the previous three months. Several delegates, who asked not to be identified, said their countries are ready consider the same hike again for August when they convene on July 6.
Riyadh has steered the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to accelerate its scheduled output revival despite faltering demand and plentiful supply, a shock reversal that briefly dragged oil prices to a four-year low in April.
Crude markets have whipsawed since the alliance’s last gathering earlier this month, spiking to a five-month high above $80 a barrel in London this week after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear program, only to subside again as a ceasefire eased tensions. Brent futures traded near $68 a barrel on Friday.
There has also been a noteworthy shift from OPEC+ co-leader Russia, which had led a brief push at the previous meeting against making another accelerated output hike in July. Moscow is now more receptive to a new supply boost if the alliance decides it’s necessary, a person familiar with the county’s position said earlier this week.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, when asked on Friday about the possibility of a further boost, said “we’ll look at it during the meeting,” according to Tass.
“Production is increasing only to the extent that we have agreed within the framework of OPEC+,” President Vladimir Putin said at a news conference in Minsk on Friday. “It is designed to meet the increasing demand, especially in summer.”
OPEC+ has now agreed hikes of 411,000 barrels a day — three times the initially-scheduled volume — for May, June and July. Delegates have offered a range of motives for the surge: from punishing the group’s over-producers, to mollifying President Donald Trump and reclaiming sales from US shale drillers.
“We still think OPEC’s voluntary producers will proceed with another accelerated three-month phase-in of barrels, even with the sharp selloff in prices following the Iranian climb down and subsequent ceasefire,” Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital LLC, said in a report.
(Bloomberg, June 27, 2025)
