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IENE Released Latest Geopolitics Bulletin

IENE Released Latest Geopolitics BulletinLast month IENE released its latest “Geopolitics Bulletin” which is prepared by the Institute’s “Energy and Geopolitics” committee which is chaired by oil industry veteran and MoB, Christos Dimas. The “Bulletin” is an occasional publication which attempt to map latest geopolitical developments related to energy while offering some useful insights as to the likely outcome of current crises and threats

Last month IENE released its latest "Geopolitics Bulletin” which is prepared by the Institute’s "Energy and Geopolitics” committee which is chaired by oil industry veteran and MoB, Christos Dimas. The "Bulletin” is an occasional publication which attempts to map latest geopolitical developments related to energy while offering some useful insights as to the likely outcome of current crises and threats.

In this latest issue (No.9) the Geopolitical Bulletin examines the Qatar Crisis and assesses its impact on the wider Middle East region. "The crisis”, notes the Bulletin, "goes beyond the financing of terrorism, and highlights the Gulf fears about the role of Iran, internal instability and the regional influence of the Muslim Brotherhood as well as competition for regional leadership. On the other hand, Russia and Iran have supported dialogue to end the crises. For Israel, the isolation of Qatar is a welcome development as it reduces support for Hamas and reveals Qatar’s ties to Iran. The dispute with Qatar led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emiratesisalso pushing Turkey and Iran closer while it further exacerbates the competition between Turkey and Egypt. Erdogan’s support for Qatar is "likely to force Erdogan to ease tensions with Tehran, which also backs Qatar, to avoid facing a new bout of isolation in the region. Qatar and Turkey areone axis and are unlikely to fully accept Tehran’s regional views. Yetdespite these differences, Ankara and Doha don’t regard Tehran as an enemy. This is enough to reach common ground on some differencesthanks to Riyadh’s harsh regional approach, which is seen by all three as endangering fragile regional stability”.

Furthermore the Bulletin notes that "a highly contentious issue behind the Qatar crisis and the trade embargo by the four protagonists appears to be the Emirate’s close relationship with Iran with whom Qatar shares one of the world’s largest gas fields, known as South Pars. The successful exploration by Qatar of the above field with the development of a formidable LNG export business, whereby Qatar supplies almost 1/3 of global LNG needs, lies at the heart of the animosity expressed by its neighbors. Qatar’s long-term strategy, enacted almost 25 years ago, for LNG development is now paying off huge financial dividends much to the chagrin of the other Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia in particular. It should be also noted that Qatar has a higher per capita income than any country other than Liechtenstein while it produces 1.9 mill. barrels of crude oil per day and 181 billion cubic metres (BCM) of liquefied natural gas per year".

The Bulletin further looks into the Syrian conflict and how this is shaping the broader economic and energy politics of the region. The retreat of ISIS and the next day for the Caliphate is also of concern in view of the serious political and economic risks at play not only for the Middle East but also for Europe and Africa.

China’s dominance of the South China Sea and its long term plans to exploit the region’s hydrocarbon resources are examined especially in connection with Chinese efforts to create a foothold in the black continent through the setting up of a military base in the Horn of Africa at Djibouti. The dangers posed by North Korea’s ongoing nuclear programme are also highlighted in view of latest multiple tests and intercontinental strike capability.

Finally USA’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate agreement is discussed following President Donald Trump’s latest decision. Although the withdrawal of USA from the Paris agreement is a blow to the environmental movement and leaves USA isolated from global efforts to combat Climate Change, the truth is that USA’s steady, years-long reduction in greenhouse gas emissionsthat contribute to global warming won’t suddenly stop. US utility companies have announced plans to fully or partially close more than a half dozen coal-fired power plants since Trump took office fewer than five months ago, taking some of the nation’s largest greenhouse gas emitters off-line. AndWall Street fund managers and large businesses are moving away from fossil fuels due to market conditions, further contributing to increased use of cleaner energy sources. Since 2010, more than 250 coal-fired power plants have closed in the U.S. Early in June, Exxon Mobil shareholders voted – against the board’s recommendation – to require the company publicly report on the risks to its business posed by climate change.

IENE EVENTS 22nd National Energy Conference "Energy & Development 2017"

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